ANALYSIS: The Olympic Games and Politics in a Global Pandemic – Why Tokyo 2020 Changed Track

With news coming through over the weekend that the International Olympic Committee and Japanese government are finally considering possible postponement of Tokyo 2020 this summer, Michael Pirrie looks at why they may be coming round…

The lights have gone down on Broadway and the West End; the clapper boards have run out of applause in Hollywood; Big Brother has lost his voice and the dolphins have returned to the Grande Canal, but the world’s greatest sporting event was continuing its marathon run to Tokyo in late July.

The sporting world’s greatest show on earth had turned into its biggest soap opera. Every day the world is waiting for a new episode. Tokyo and Olympic leads were adamant the show would go on.

Theatres had been booked; tickets almost sold out; and the athletes were waiting for their call sheets, performance scripts, and the call to set.

Those call times, however, appeared to be changing by the day and now are yet to be finally determined.

The announcement of a possible deferment looks set to bring the curtain down temporarily on the world’s biggest sporting and cultural event.

As the world continues to shut down and retreat indoors from the pandemic, it will have to do so without its four yearly television binge on the Summer Olympic Games, and watch box sets of past editions the Games instead.

Reality Finally Breaking Down Optimism

While the massive scale of the Olympics made the Games a prime target for the corona virus, Tokyo organisers had been holding out hope in quiet desperation for a miracle cure or sudden change in the direction of the pandemic.

While Japan had remained outwardly confident the Games could proceed, a chorus of doubt and concern was building in the background as the virus rampaged across the world.

IOC members detected a dark and fearful mood in their home nations about the Games going ahead in the midst of a global health emergency.

Following years of preparations, athletes are also fearing that restricted access to training facilities and supports due to the pandemic would prevent them achieving their best performances in Tokyo.

World governing bodies were increasingly worried about conditions for the Games in Tokyo.

Those fears reached a tipping point in recent days as all major international sporting events were shut down or deferred.

Meanwhile, the toll of death and disease was reaching alarming levels in several of the top Olympic nations of Europe including Italy, Spain and France, and in the United States, the leading Olympic nation, further raising concerns amongst national Olympic committees, families of athletes and their communities.

A growing number of athletes were reluctant to leave loved ones behind in such dire circumstances.

Following years of preparations, athletes are also fearing that restricted access to training facilities and supports due to the pandemic would prevent them achieving their best performances in Tokyo.

The Olympic Games was becoming an impossible dream.

Prioritising Life Takes Focus

While Japan has shown extraordinary commitment in preparing for the Games, the primary responsibility of the Japanese Government in the current circumstances is to protect its citizens from the pandemic, especially the vast population of elderly residents for whom this virus poses an existential threat.

The primary responsibility of the IOC is to protect the Olympic athletes and integrity, heritage and values.

Senior figures in the Olympic movement, led by IOC president Thomas Bach, and Seb Coe, president of World Athletics, the most important sport at  the Olympic Games, stressed, like world leaders, presidents, prime minsters, and others, that sacrifices are needed to protect human lives.

Especially In a new world where staying alive means staying apart.

A final decision on Tokyo’s rescue package is still four weeks away while the IOC works with the Japanese Government, Olympic committee, world governing bodies, key stakeholders and athletes to lock down future options for the Games.

While Japan’ has indicated its preference for a “full form” of the Olympic Games, more than one date may be necessary for next year, along with a back up in 2022 given the many imponderables still surrounding the virus, especially its potency in large urban centres and cities, such as Tokyo, and whether there are more viral particles in the air of such places.

Some statisticians indicate that accurate assessment of risk may be difficult to gauge, and can be misunderstood and over estimated in the climate of hysteria and lack of knowledge surrounding the virus.

The coronavirus pandemic would cast a long shadow over the Olympic Games if it proceeded in July and cases continued to rise, rendering the medal tally irrelevant to the death tally

Public health experts warn however of the enormously fatal consequences facing humanity if the risks of this new and highly infectious killer disease are underestimated.

They fear in particular that there are several viral time bombs ticking away in Africa and some of Asia’s biggest nations, including Indonesia.

A Stain On The Games

The coronavirus pandemic would cast a long shadow over the Olympic Games if it proceeded in July and cases continued to rise, rendering the medal tally irrelevant to the death tally, especially in countries, cities and communities hit hardest by the pandemic.

While Japan organisers, athletes and Games fans will be looking closely at patterns of spread and infection over the next four weeks and hoping for signs the crisis is starting to subside, virologists believe the pandemic will get much worse before the situation improves.

While directives limiting movement in public places, shutting down national boarders, airlines, cities, communities  and gatherings around the world have made the Games impossible to currently contemplate, the cumulative impact of these measures, paradoxically, will help to contain transmission and fear of the virus and ultimately pave the way for the Games.

When the back lot lights are lit again, and the cast reforms for the next series, Tokyo will be set to star in the world’s first global spectacular post corona production, with rave reviews almost certain.

Stay tuned…

Michael Pirrie is an international communications adviser and commentator. Michael led the global media campaign for the London 2012 Olympic Games bid and was executive adviser to the London Games chairman, Seb Coe. Michael liaised with the IOC Executive Office on planning for the Co-ordination Commission meetings, the high level strategic and technical planning committee overseeing preparations for the Olympic Games.

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